“The increase in October isn’t enough evidence to indicate a new foreclosure crisis emerging in these states, but it certainly demonstrates that this housing recovery is not completely devoid of risk.”

The spike, the biggest monthly jump since August 2007, may be due to a dynamic in the recovery itself: When the mortgage market crashed, and private capital fled entirely, the government stepped in. Government-insured FHA loans jumped from about 3 percent of mortgage originations in 2005 to as high as 18 percent in 2010, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.

These loans, which require just a 3.5 percent down payment, are by definition more risky. Not only do borrowers have far less of a cushion in prices, but the credit score minimum is lower. Borrowers who use FHA loans, which require mortgage insurance, are likely doing so because don’t have the income to afford a higher down payment.

“In digging into the numbers among loans that were originated in the seven years from 2009 to 2015, FHA and VA loans account for 49 percent of all active loans in foreclosure. By comparison, among loans in that were originated in the previous seven years from 2002 to 2008, FHA and VA loans account for just 12 percent of all active loans in foreclosure. Most of the risk during that time was subprime, which were exotic loan products outside of the FHA and VA credit box,” said Blomquist.

While most stark in October, another new report shows trouble with FHA loans starting already this summer. Although the total percentage of new foreclosures started in the third quarter of this year dropped to the lowest rate since 2000 and even below the historical average, new FHA foreclosures moved higher by 6 basis points, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. FHA foreclosure activity is still below average, but the turnaround is troubling.